SPSS leaving out a dummy variable in 'step 2' of logistic regression - logistic-regression

I am doing a logistic regression (in three steps) in SPSS on radical right support and gender, using data from the European social survey. The outcome variable is whether the person voted for a radical right party or not.
I have some attitudinal variables, as well as sociodemographics like age, marital status etc.
These all go on the first regression model. Then in the second one I add 'female_leader' (i.e. whether the party they voted for had a female leader), and on the third an interaction between 'female' (of the voter) and 'female_leader'.
My problem is that it doesn't add the 'female_leader' in the second step, just repeats the first step. The third one it does add the interaction variable.
I'm unsure why SPSS doesn't add the 'female_leader' variable.
Here's my code:
LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES all_votes
/METHOD=ENTER female marriage_recode religion_recode attendence_recode
unemployed
professional_worker skilled_workers culture_undermined gays_free_disagree
democracy_important
secondary_below_education degree_education_plus agea cntry
/METHOD=ENTER female_leader
/METHOD=ENTER interaction
/CONTRAST (cntry)=Indicator
/CONTRAST (marriage_recode)=Indicator
/CONTRAST (religion_recode)=Indicator
/CONTRAST (attendence_recode)=Indicator
/SAVE=RESID ZRESID
/CLASSPLOT
/PRINT=GOODFIT CI(95)
/CRITERIA=PIN(0.05) POUT(0.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(0.5).
Hopefully this is enough info. Thanks.

The likely reason for the female_leader variable not to be entered in this situation is that it's redundant or linearly dependent upon the variables already entered in the first block, which means that it won't add any information to those variables in trying to predict the dependent. Look for a warning message at the top of your output reading: "Due to redundancies, degrees of freedom have been reduced for one or more variables."

Related

Algorithm sorting details, but without excluding

I have come across a problem.
I’m not asking for help how to construct what I’m searching for, but only to guide me to what I’m looking for! 😊
The thing I want to create is some sort of ‘Sorting Algorithm/Mechanism’.
Example:
Imagine I have a database with over 1000 pictures of different vehicles.
A person sees a vehicle, he now tries to get as much information and details about that vehicle, such as:
Shape
number of wheels
number and shape of windows
number and shape of light(s)
number and shape of exhaust(s)
Etc…
He then gives me all information about that vehicle he saw. BUT! Without telling me anything about:
Make and model.
…
I will now take that information and tell my database to sort out every vehicle so that it arranges all 1000 vehicle by best match, based by the description it have been given.
But it should NOT exclude any vehicle!
So…
If the person tells me that the vehicle only has 4 wheels, but in reality it has 5 (he might not have seen the fifth wheel) it should just get a bad score in the # of wheels.
But if every other aspect matches that vehicle perfect it will still get a high score.
That way we don’t exclude the vehicle that he has seen, and we still have a change to find the correct vehicle.
The whole aspect of this mechanism is to, as said, sort out the most, so instead of looking through 1000 vehicles we only need to sort through the best matches which is 10 to maybe 50 vehicles out of a 1000 (hopefully).
I tried to describe it the best I could in a language that isn’t ‘my father’s tongue’. So bear with me.
Again, I’m not looking for anybody telling me how to make this algorithm, I’m pretty sure nobody even wants of have the time to do that for me, without getting paid somehow...
But I just need to know where to look regarding learning and understanding how to create this mess of a mechanism.
Kind regards
Gent!
Assuming that all your pictures have been indexed with the relevant fields (number of wheels, window shapes...), and given that they are not too numerous (a thousand is peanuts for a computer), you can proceed as follows:
for every criterion, weight the possible discrepancies (e.g. one wheel too much costs 5, one wheel too few costs 10, bad window shape costs 8...). Make this in a coherent way so that the costs of the criteria are well balanced.
to perform a search, evaluate the total discrepancy cost of every car, and sort the values increasingly. Report the first ten.
Technically, what you are after is called a "nearest neighbor search" in a high dimensional space. This problem has been well studied. There are fast solutions but they are extremely complex, and in your case are absolutely not worth using.
The default way of doing this for example in artificial intelligence is to encode all properties as a vector and applying certain weights to each property. The distance can then be calculated using any metric you like. In your case manhatten-distance should be fine. So in pseudocode:
distance(first_car, second_car):
return abs(first_car.n_wheels - second_car.n_wheels) * wheels_weight+ ... +
abs(first_car.n_windows - second_car.n_windows) * windows_weight
This works fine for simple properties like the number of wheels. For more complex properties like the shape of a window you'll probably need to split it up into multiple attributes depending on your requirements on similarity.
Weights are usually picked in such a way as to normalize all values, if their range is known. Optionally an additional factor can be multiplied to increase the impact of a specific attribute on the overall distance.

SPSS logistic regression - Exp(B) displays reciprocal of my categorical vars?

I'm performing logistical regression with SPSS and Exp(B) is showing the reciprocal of what I'd like. E.g., where I'd like to display, say 2.0, Exp(B) is listed as 0.5. My variables are all categorical, so the coding is arbitrary.
I know I can recode variables, but I'm wondering if there's a simple setting in one of the dialogs to display reciprocals or recode on the fly? If possible, I'd like to do it through the UI rather than the command line input?
If you're using the LOGISTIC REGRESSION procedure (Analyze>Regression>Binary Logistic in the menus), clicking on the Categorical button will allow you to specify predictor variables as categorical and the desired type of contrast coding for each one. As long as the variables of interest are binary or the contrasts you want use either the first or last level of the variables as the reference category in forming the contrasts, you can specify them in that dialog box in order to get what you want.
If a variable has more than two levels and you want to use a category other than the first or the last as the reference category, you'd have to paste the command from the dialogs and add the sequential number of the desired category to the CONTRAST subcommand for that predictor variable. For example, if you have a three-category variable named X and you want to compare the first and third categories against the second one, you'd edit it to read
/CONTRAST (X)=Indicator(2)
or
/CONTRAST (X)=Simple(2)
depending on the type of contrasts specified in the dialogs (these two would produce the same results for these contrasts in models where X is not contained in an interaction term also in the model, differing only in how the constant or intercept is represented).

How do I handle uncertainty/missing data in an Artifical Neural Network?

The context:
I'm experimenting with using a feed-forward artificial neural network to create AI for a video game, and I've run into the problem that some of my input features are dependent upon the existence or value of other input features.
The most basic, simplified example I can think of is this:
feature 1 is the number of players (range 2...5)
feature 2 to ? is the score of each player (range >=0)
The number of features needed to inform the ANN of the scores is dependent on the number of players.
The question: How can I represent this dynamic knowledge input to an ANN?
Things I've already considered:
Simply not using such features, or consolidating them into static input.
I.E using the sum of the players scores instead. I seriously doubt this is applicable to my problem, it would result in the loss of too much information and the ANN would fail to perform well.
Passing in an error value (eg -1) or default value (eg 0) for non-existant input
I'm not sure how well this would work, in theory the ANN could easily learn from this input and model the function appropriately. In practise I'm worried about the sheer number of non-existant input causing problems for the ANN. For example if the range of players was 2-10, if there were only 2 players, 80% of the input data would be non-existant and would introduce weird bias into the ANN resulting in a poor performance.
Passing in the mean value over the training set in place on non-existant input
Again, the amount of non-existant input would be a problem, and I'm worried this would introduce weird problems for discrete-valued inputs.
So, I'm asking this, does anybody have any other solutions I could think about? And is there a standard or commonly used method for handling this problem?
I know it's a rather niche and complicated question for SO, but I was getting bored of the "how do I fix this code?" and "how do I do this in PHP/Javascript?" questions :P, thanks guys.
It sounds like you have multiple data sets (for each number of players) that aren't really compatible with each other. Would lessons learned from a 5-player game really apply to a 2-player game? Try simplifying the problem, such as #1, and see how the program performs. In AI, absurd simplifications can sometimes give you a lot of traction, like bag of words in spam filters.
Try thinking about some model like the following:
Say xi (e.g. x1) is one of the inputs that a variable number of can exist. You can have n of these (x1 to xn). Let y be the rest of the inputs.
On your first hidden layer, pass x1 and y to the first c nodes, x1,x2 and y to the next c nodes, x1,x2,x3 and y to the next c nodes, and so on. This assumes x1 and x3 can't both be active without x2. The model will have to change appropriately if this needs to be possible.
The rest of the network is a standard feed-forward network with all nodes connected to all nodes of the next layer, or however you choose.
Whenever you have w active inputs, disable all but the wth set of c nodes (completely exclude them from training for that input set, don't include them when calculating the value for the nodes they output to, don't update the weights for their inputs or outputs). This will allow most of the network to train, but for the first hidden layer, only parts applicable to that number of inputs.
I suggest c is chosen such that c*n (the number of nodes in the first hidden layer) is greater than (or equal to) the number of nodes in the 2nd hidden layer (and have c be at the very least 10 for a moderately sized network (into the 100s is also fine)) and I also suggest the network have at least 2 other hidden layers (so 3 in total excluding input and output). This is not from experience, but just what my intuition tells me.
This working is dependent on a certain (possibly undefinable) similarity between the different numbers of inputs, and might not work well, if at all, if this similarity doesn't exist. This also probably requires quite a bit of training data for each number of inputs.
If you try it, let me / us know if it works.
If you're interested in Artificial Intelligence discussions, I suggest joining some Linked-In group dedicated to it, there are some that are quite active and have interesting discussions. There doesn't seem to be much happening on stackoverflow when it comes to Artificial Intelligence, or maybe we should just work to change that, or both.
UPDATE:
Here is a list of the names of a few decent Artificial Intelligence LinkedIn groups (unless they changed their policies recently, it should be easy enough to join):
'Artificial Intelligence Researchers, Faculty + Professionals'
'Artificial Intelligence Applications'
'Artificial Neural Networks'
'AGI — Artificial General Intelligence'
'Applied Artificial Intelligence' (not too much going on at the moment, and still dealing with some spam, but it is getting better)
'Text Analytics' (if you're interested in that)

Crossover function for genetic

I am writing a Time table generator in java, using AI approaches to satisfy the hard constraints and help find an optimal solution. So far I have implemented and Iterative construction (a most-constrained first heuristic) and Simulated Annealing, and I'm in the process of implementing a genetic algorithm.
Some info on the problem, and how I represent it then :
I have a set of events, rooms , features (that events require and rooms satisfy), students and slots
The problem consists in assigning to each event a slot and a room, such that no student is required to attend two events in one slot, all the rooms assigned fulfill the necessary requirements.
I have a grading function that for each set if assignments grades the soft constraint violations, thus the point is to minimize this.
The way I am implementing the GA is I start with a population generated by the iterative construction (which can leave events unassigned) and then do the normal steps: evaluate, select, cross, mutate and keep the best. Rinse and repeat.
My problem is that my solution appears to improve too little. No matter what I do, the populations tends to a random fitness and is stuck there. Note that this fitness always differ, but nevertheless a lower limit will appear.
I suspect that the problem is in my crossover function, and here is the logic behind it:
Two assignments are randomly chosen to be crossed. Lets call them assignments A and B. For all of B's events do the following procedure (the order B's events are selected is random):
Get the corresponding event in A and compare the assignment. 3 different situations might happen.
If only one of them is unassigned and if it is possible to replicate
the other assignment on the child, this assignment is chosen.
If both of them are assigned, but only one of them creates no
conflicts when assigning to the child, that one is chosen.
If both of them are assigned and none create conflict, on of
them is randomly chosen.
In any other case, the event is left unassigned.
This creates a child with some of the parent's assignments, some of the mother's, so it seems to me it is a valid function. Moreover, it does not break any hard constraints.
As for mutation, I am using the neighboring function of my SA to give me another assignment based on on of the children, and then replacing that child.
So again. With this setup, initial population of 100, the GA runs and always tends to stabilize at some random (high) fitness value. Can someone give me a pointer as to what could I possibly be doing wrong?
Thanks
Edit: Formatting and clear some things
I think GA only makes sense if part of the solution (part of the vector) has a significance as a stand alone part of the solution, so that the crossover function integrates valid parts of a solution between two solution vectors. Much like a certain part of a DNA sequence controls or affects a specific aspect of the individual - eye color is one gene for example. In this problem however the different parts of the solution vector affect each other making the crossover almost meaningless. This results (my guess) in the algorithm converging on a single solution rather quickly with the different crossovers and mutations having only a negative affect on the fitness.
I dont believe GA is the right tool for this problem.
If you could please provide the original problem statement, I will be able to give you a better solution. Here is my answer for the present moment.
A genetic algorithm is not the best tool to satisfy hard constraints. This is an assigment problem that can be solved using integer program, a special case of a linear program.
Linear programs allow users to minimize or maximize some goal modeled by an objective function (grading function). The objective function is defined by the sum of individual decisions (or decision variables) and the value or contribution to the objective function. Linear programs allow for your decision variables to be decimal values, but integer programs force the decision variables to be integer values.
So, what are your decisions? Your decisions are to assign students to slots. And these slots have features which events require and rooms satisfy.
In your case, you want to maximize the number of students that are assigned to a slot.
You also have constraints. In your case, a student may only attend at most one event.
The website below provides a good tutorial on how to model integer programs.
http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/moreip.html
For a java specific implementation, use the link below.
http://javailp.sourceforge.net/
SolverFactory factory = new SolverFactoryLpSolve(); // use lp_solve
factory.setParameter(Solver.VERBOSE, 0);
factory.setParameter(Solver.TIMEOUT, 100); // set timeout to 100 seconds
/**
* Constructing a Problem:
* Maximize: 143x+60y
* Subject to:
* 120x+210y <= 15000
* 110x+30y <= 4000
* x+y <= 75
*
* With x,y being integers
*
*/
Problem problem = new Problem();
Linear linear = new Linear();
linear.add(143, "x");
linear.add(60, "y");
problem.setObjective(linear, OptType.MAX);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(120, "x");
linear.add(210, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 15000);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(110, "x");
linear.add(30, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 4000);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(1, "x");
linear.add(1, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 75);
problem.setVarType("x", Integer.class);
problem.setVarType("y", Integer.class);
Solver solver = factory.get(); // you should use this solver only once for one problem
Result result = solver.solve(problem);
System.out.println(result);
/**
* Extend the problem with x <= 16 and solve it again
*/
problem.setVarUpperBound("x", 16);
solver = factory.get();
result = solver.solve(problem);
System.out.println(result);
// Results in the following output:
// Objective: 6266.0 {y=52, x=22}
// Objective: 5828.0 {y=59, x=16}
I would start by measuring what's going on directly. For example, what fraction of the assignments are falling under your "any other case" catch-all and therefore doing nothing?
Also, while we can't really tell from the information given, it doesn't seem any of your moves can do a "swap", which may be a problem. If a schedule is tightly constrained, then once you find something feasible, it's likely that you won't be able to just move a class from room A to room B, as room B will be in use. You'd need to consider ways of moving a class from A to B along with moving a class from B to A.
You can also sometimes improve things by allowing constraints to be violated. Instead of forbidding crossover from ever violating a constraint, you can allow it, but penalize the fitness in proportion to the "badness" of the violation.
Finally, it's possible that your other operators are the problem as well. If your selection and replacement operators are too aggressive, you can converge very quickly to something that's only slightly better than where you started. Once you converge, it's very difficult for mutations alone to kick you back out into a productive search.
I think there is nothing wrong with GA for this problem, some people just hate Genetic Algorithms no matter what.
Here is what I would check:
First you mention that your GA stabilizes at a random "High" fitness value, but isn't this a good thing? Does "high" fitness correspond to good or bad in your case? It is possible you are favoring "High" fitness in one part of your code and "Low" fitness in another thus causing the seemingly random result.
I think you want to be a bit more careful about the logic behind your crossover operation. Basically there are many situations for all 3 cases where making any of those choices would not cause an increase in fitness at all of the crossed-over individual, but you are still using a "resource" (an assignment that could potentially be used for another class/student/etc.) I realize that a GA traditionally will make assignments via crossover that cause worse behavior, but you are already performing a bit of computation in the crossover phase anyway, why not choose one that actually will improve fitness or maybe don't cross at all?
Optional Comment to Consider : Although your iterative construction approach is quite interesting, this may cause you to have an overly complex Gene representation that could be causing problems with your crossover. Is it possible to model a single individual solution as an array (or 2D array) of bits or integers? Even if the array turns out to be very long, it may be worth it use a more simple crossover procedure. I recommend Googling "ga gene representation time tabling" you may find an approach that you like more and can more easily scale to many individuals (100 is a rather small population size for a GA, but I understand you are still testing, also how many generations?).
One final note, I am not sure what language you are working in but if it is Java and you don't NEED to code the GA by hand I would recommend taking a look at ECJ. Maybe even if you have to code by hand, it could help you develop your representation or breeding pipeline.
Newcomers to GA can make any of a number of standard mistakes:
In general, when doing crossover, make sure that the child has some chance of inheriting that which made the parent or parents winner(s) in the first place. In other words, choose a genome representation where the "gene" fragments of the genome have meaningful mappings to the problem statement. A common mistake is to encode everything as a bitvector and then, in crossover, to split the bitvector at random places, splitting up the good thing the bitvector represented and thereby destroying the thing that made the individual float to the top as a good candidate. A vector of (limited) integers is likely to be a better choice, where integers can be replaced by mutation but not by crossover. Not preserving something (doesn't have to be 100%, but it has to be some aspect) of what made parents winners means you are essentially doing random search, which will perform no better than linear search.
In general, use much less mutation than you might think. Mutation is there mainly to keep some diversity in the population. If your initial population doesn't contain anything with a fractional advantage, then your population is too small for the problem at hand and a high mutation rate will, in general, not help.
In this specific case, your crossover function is too complicated. Do not ever put constraints aimed at keeping all solutions valid into the crossover. Instead the crossover function should be free to generate invalid solutions and it is the job of the goal function to somewhat (not totally) penalize the invalid solutions. If your GA works, then the final answers will not contain any invalid assignments, provided 100% valid assignments are at all possible. Insisting on validity in the crossover prevents valid solutions from taking shortcuts through invalid solutions to other and better valid solutions.
I would recommend anyone who thinks they have written a poorly performing GA to conduct the following test: Run the GA a few times, and note the number of generations it took to reach an acceptable result. Then replace the winner selection step and goal function (whatever you use - tournament, ranking, etc) with a random choice, and run it again. If you still converge roughly at the same speed as with the real evaluator/goal function then you didn't actually have a functioning GA. Many people who say GAs don't work have made some mistake in their code which means the GA converges as slowly as random search which is enough to turn anyone off from the technique.

How to program a neural network for chess?

I want to program a chess engine which learns to make good moves and win against other players. I've already coded a representation of the chess board and a function which outputs all possible moves. So I only need an evaluation function which says how good a given situation of the board is. Therefore, I would like to use an artificial neural network which should then evaluate a given position. The output should be a numerical value. The higher the value is, the better is the position for the white player.
My approach is to build a network of 385 neurons: There are six unique chess pieces and 64 fields on the board. So for every field we take 6 neurons (1 for every piece). If there is a white piece, the input value is 1. If there is a black piece, the value is -1. And if there is no piece of that sort on that field, the value is 0. In addition to that there should be 1 neuron for the player to move. If it is White's turn, the input value is 1 and if it's Black's turn, the value is -1.
I think that configuration of the neural network is quite good. But the main part is missing: How can I implement this neural network into a coding language (e.g. Delphi)? I think the weights for each neuron should be the same in the beginning. Depending on the result of a match, the weights should then be adjusted. But how? I think I should let 2 computer players (both using my engine) play against each other. If White wins, Black gets the feedback that its weights aren't good.
So it would be great if you could help me implementing the neural network into a coding language (best would be Delphi, otherwise pseudo-code). Thanks in advance!
In case somebody randomly finds this page. Given what we know now, what the OP proposes is almost certainly possible. In fact we managed to do it for a game with much larger state space - Go ( https://deepmind.com/research/case-studies/alphago-the-story-so-far ).
I don't see why you can't have a neural net for a static evaluator if you also do some classic mini-max lookahead with alpha-beta pruning. Lots of Chess engines use minimax with a braindead static evaluator that just adds up the pieces or something; it doesn't matter so much if you have enough levels of minimax. I don't know how much of an improvement the net would make but there's little to lose. Training it would be tricky though. I'd suggest using an engine that looks ahead many moves (and takes loads of CPU etc) to train the evaluator for an engine that looks ahead fewer moves. That way you end up with an engine that doesn't take as much CPU (hopefully).
Edit: I wrote the above in 2010, and now in 2020 Stockfish NNUE has done it. "The network is optimized and trained on the [classical Stockfish] evaluations of millions of positions at moderate search depth" and then used as a static evaluator, and in their initial tests they got an 80-elo improvement when using this static evaluator instead of their previous one (or, equivalently, the same elo with a little less CPU time). So yes it does work, and you don't even have to train the network at high search depth as I originally suggested: moderate search depth is enough, but the key is to use many millions of positions.
Been there, done that. Since there is no continuity in your problem (the value of a position is not closely related to an other position with only 1 change in the value of one input), there is very little chance a NN would work. And it never did in my experiments.
I would rather see a simulated annealing system with an ad-hoc heuristic (of which there are plenty out there) to evaluate the value of the position...
However, if you are set on using a NN, is is relatively easy to represent. A general NN is simply a graph, with each node being a neuron. Each neuron has a current activation value, and a transition formula to compute the next activation value, based on input values, i.e. activation values of all the nodes that have a link to it.
A more classical NN, that is with an input layer, an output layer, identical neurons for each layer, and no time-dependency, can thus be represented by an array of input nodes, an array of output nodes, and a linked graph of nodes connecting those. Each node possesses a current activation value, and a list of nodes it forwards to. Computing the output value is simply setting the activations of the input neurons to the input values, and iterating through each subsequent layer in turn, computing the activation values from the previous layer using the transition formula. When you have reached the last (output) layer, you have your result.
It is possible, but not trivial by any means.
https://erikbern.com/2014/11/29/deep-learning-for-chess/
To train his evaluation function, he utilized a lot of computing power to do so.
To summarize generally, you could go about it as follows. Your evaluation function is a feedforward NN. Let the matrix computations lead to a scalar output valuing how good the move is. The input vector for the network is the board state represented by all the pieces on the board so say white pawn is 1, white knight is 2... and empty space is 0. An example board state input vector is simply a sequence of 0-12's. This evaluation can be trained using grandmaster games (available at a fics database for example) for many games, minimizing loss between what the current parameters say is the highest valuation and what move the grandmasters made (which should have the highest valuation). This of course assumes that the grandmaster moves are correct and optimal.
What you need to train a ANN is either something like backpropagation learning or some form of a genetic algorithm. But chess is such an complex game that it is unlikly that a simple ANN will learn to play it - even more if the learning process is unsupervised.
Further, your question does not say anything about the number of layers. You want to use 385 input neurons to encode the current situation. But how do you want to decide what to do? On neuron per field? Highest excitation wins? But there is often more than one possible move.
Further you will need several hidden layers - the functions that can be represented with an input and an output layer without hidden layer are really limited.
So I do not want to prevent you from trying it, but chances for a successful implemenation and training within say one year or so a practically zero.
I tried to build and train an ANN to play Tic-tac-toe when I was 16 years or so ... and I failed. I would suggest to try such an simple game first.
The main problem I see here is one of training. You say you want your ANN to take the current board position and evaluate how good it is for a player. (I assume you will take every possible move for a player, apply it to the current board state, evaluate via the ANN and then take the one with the highest output - ie: hill climbing)
Your options as I see them are:
Develop some heuristic function to evaluate the board state and train the network off that. But that begs the question of why use an ANN at all, when you could just use your heuristic.
Use some statistical measure such as "How many games were won by white or black from this board configuration?", which would give you a fitness value between white or black. The difficulty with that is the amount of training data required for the size of your problem space.
With the second option you could always feed it board sequences from grandmaster games and hope there is enough coverage for the ANN to develop a solution.
Due to the complexity of the problem I'd want to throw the largest network (ie: lots of internal nodes) at it as I could without slowing down the training too much.
Your input algorithm is sound - all positions, all pieces, and both players are accounted for. You may need an input layer for every past state of the gameboard, so that past events are used as input again.
The output layer should (in some form) give the piece to move, and the location to move to.
Write a genetic algorithm using a connectome which contains all neuron weights and synapse strengths, and begin multiple separated gene pools with a large number of connectomes in each.
Make them play one another, keep the best handful, crossover and mutate the best connectomes to repopulate the pool.
Read blondie24 : http://www.amazon.co.uk/Blondie24-Playing-Kaufmann-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/1558607838.
It deals with checkers instead of chess but the principles are the same.
Came here to say what Silas said. Using a minimax algorithm, you can expect to be able to look ahead N moves. Using Alpha-beta pruning, you can expand that to theoretically 2*N moves, but more realistically 3*N/4 moves. Neural networks are really appropriate here.
Perhaps though a genetic algorithm could be used.

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