I am studying about Bayesian Network of my AI courses.
Does anyone know how to calculate causal inference and diagnostic inference in the attached picture?
Bayesian Network Example
There are lots of ways to perform inference from a Bayesian network, the most naive of which is just enumeration.
Enumeration works for both causal inference and diagnostic inference. The difference is finding out how likely the effect is based on evidence of the cause (causal inference) vs finding out how likely the cause is based on evidence of the effect (diagnostic inference).
The answer from Nick Larsen is a good one. I'll elaborate to give a worked solution to your problem since you might be looking for something a little more specific.
Problem 1: P(C|E). What is the probability of having a promising career (C=1) GIVEN the economic environment is positive (E=1)?
We use the factored structure of the Bayes net to write the full joint probability in terms of the factored variables.
Notice that you have just used the law of total probability to introduce the latent variables (S and J) and then marginalise (sum) them out. I have used the 'hat' to refer to not (~ in your question above). Notice too that once you have applied the rule of total probability, the Bayes net does a lot of the hard work for you by allowing you to factor the joint probability into a number of smaller conditional probabilities.
Problem 2: P(E|C). What is the probability that the economic environment is positive (E=1) GIVEN we observe that you have a promising career (C=1)?
Here we actually need to apply Bayes rule in the first line. Notice that you have an annoying normalising constant P(C) that is carried throughout. This term can be solved in much the same way as you solved Problem 1:
The computation of P(C=1|E=1) is solved in problem 1. I have left out the computation for P(C=0|E=1) = 0.5425 out but it is the same process as Problem 1.
Now you are in a position to solve for P(E|C) = .38/.65125 = .583
I have couple of general questions on genetic algorithm. In selection step where you pick up chromosomes from the population, is there an ideal number of chromosomes to be picked up? What difference does it make if I pick, say 10 chromosomes instead of 20? Does it have any effect on final result? At mutation stage, I've learnt there are different ways to mutate - Single point crossover, two points crossover, uniform crossover and arithmetic crossover. When should I choose one over the other? I know they sound very basic, but I couldn't find answer anywhere. So I thought I should ask in Stackoverflow.
Thanks
It seems to me that your terminology and concepts are a little bit messed up. Let me clarify.
First of all - there are many ways people call the members of the population: genotype, genome, chromosome, individual, solution... I will use solution for now as it is, in my opinion, the most general term, it is what we are eventually evolve, and also I'm not a biologist so I don't know whether genotype, genome and chromosome somehow differ and if they do what is the difference...
Population
Genetic Algorithms are population-based evolutionary algorithms. The algorithms have (usually) a fixed-sized population of solutions of the problem it is solving.
Genetic operators
There are two principal genetic operators - crossover and mutation. The goal of crossover is to take two (or more in some cases) solutions and combine them to create a solution that has some properties of both, optimally the best of both. The goal of mutation is to create new genetic material that was not previously present in the population by doing a small random change.
The choice of the particular operators, i.e. whether a single-point or multi-point crossover..., is totally problem-dependent. For example, if your solutions are composed of some logical blocks of bits that work together in each block, it might not be a good idea to use uniform crossover because it will destroy these blocks. In such case a single- or multi-point crossover is a better choice and the best choice is probably to restrict the crossover points to be on the boundaries of the blocks only.
You have to try what works best for your problem. Also, you can always use all of them, i.e. by randomly choosing which crossover operator is going to be used each time the crossover is about to be performed. Similarly for mutation.
Modes of operation
Now to your first question about the number of selected solutions. Genetic Algorithms can run in two basic modes - generational mode and steady-state mode.
Generational mode
In generational mode, the whole population is replaced in every generation (iteration) of the algorithm. A simple python-like pseudo-code for a generational-mode GA could look like this:
P = [...] # initial population
while not stopping_condition():
Pc = [] # empty population of children
while len(Pc) < len(P):
a = select(P) # select a solution from P using some selection strategy
b = select(P)
if rand() < crossover_probability:
a, b = crossover(a, b)
if rand() < mutation_probability:
a - mutation(a)
if rand() < mutation_probability:
b = mutation(b)
Pc.append(a)
Pc.append(b)
P = Pc # replace the population with the population of children
Evaluation of the solutions was omitted.
Steady-state mode
In steady-state mode, the population persists and only a few solutions are replaced in each iteration. Again, a simple steady-state GA could look like this:
P = [...] # initial population
while not stopping_condition():
a = select(P) # select a solution from P using some selection strategy
b = select(P)
if rand() < crossover_probability:
a, b = crossover(a, b)
if rand() < mutation_probability:
a - mutation(a)
if rand() < mutation_probability:
b = mutation(b)
replace(P, a) # put a child back into P based on some replacement strategy
replace(P, b)
Evaluation of the solutions was omitted.
So, the number of selected solutions depends on how do you want your algorithm to operate.
I am writing a Time table generator in java, using AI approaches to satisfy the hard constraints and help find an optimal solution. So far I have implemented and Iterative construction (a most-constrained first heuristic) and Simulated Annealing, and I'm in the process of implementing a genetic algorithm.
Some info on the problem, and how I represent it then :
I have a set of events, rooms , features (that events require and rooms satisfy), students and slots
The problem consists in assigning to each event a slot and a room, such that no student is required to attend two events in one slot, all the rooms assigned fulfill the necessary requirements.
I have a grading function that for each set if assignments grades the soft constraint violations, thus the point is to minimize this.
The way I am implementing the GA is I start with a population generated by the iterative construction (which can leave events unassigned) and then do the normal steps: evaluate, select, cross, mutate and keep the best. Rinse and repeat.
My problem is that my solution appears to improve too little. No matter what I do, the populations tends to a random fitness and is stuck there. Note that this fitness always differ, but nevertheless a lower limit will appear.
I suspect that the problem is in my crossover function, and here is the logic behind it:
Two assignments are randomly chosen to be crossed. Lets call them assignments A and B. For all of B's events do the following procedure (the order B's events are selected is random):
Get the corresponding event in A and compare the assignment. 3 different situations might happen.
If only one of them is unassigned and if it is possible to replicate
the other assignment on the child, this assignment is chosen.
If both of them are assigned, but only one of them creates no
conflicts when assigning to the child, that one is chosen.
If both of them are assigned and none create conflict, on of
them is randomly chosen.
In any other case, the event is left unassigned.
This creates a child with some of the parent's assignments, some of the mother's, so it seems to me it is a valid function. Moreover, it does not break any hard constraints.
As for mutation, I am using the neighboring function of my SA to give me another assignment based on on of the children, and then replacing that child.
So again. With this setup, initial population of 100, the GA runs and always tends to stabilize at some random (high) fitness value. Can someone give me a pointer as to what could I possibly be doing wrong?
Thanks
Edit: Formatting and clear some things
I think GA only makes sense if part of the solution (part of the vector) has a significance as a stand alone part of the solution, so that the crossover function integrates valid parts of a solution between two solution vectors. Much like a certain part of a DNA sequence controls or affects a specific aspect of the individual - eye color is one gene for example. In this problem however the different parts of the solution vector affect each other making the crossover almost meaningless. This results (my guess) in the algorithm converging on a single solution rather quickly with the different crossovers and mutations having only a negative affect on the fitness.
I dont believe GA is the right tool for this problem.
If you could please provide the original problem statement, I will be able to give you a better solution. Here is my answer for the present moment.
A genetic algorithm is not the best tool to satisfy hard constraints. This is an assigment problem that can be solved using integer program, a special case of a linear program.
Linear programs allow users to minimize or maximize some goal modeled by an objective function (grading function). The objective function is defined by the sum of individual decisions (or decision variables) and the value or contribution to the objective function. Linear programs allow for your decision variables to be decimal values, but integer programs force the decision variables to be integer values.
So, what are your decisions? Your decisions are to assign students to slots. And these slots have features which events require and rooms satisfy.
In your case, you want to maximize the number of students that are assigned to a slot.
You also have constraints. In your case, a student may only attend at most one event.
The website below provides a good tutorial on how to model integer programs.
http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/moreip.html
For a java specific implementation, use the link below.
http://javailp.sourceforge.net/
SolverFactory factory = new SolverFactoryLpSolve(); // use lp_solve
factory.setParameter(Solver.VERBOSE, 0);
factory.setParameter(Solver.TIMEOUT, 100); // set timeout to 100 seconds
/**
* Constructing a Problem:
* Maximize: 143x+60y
* Subject to:
* 120x+210y <= 15000
* 110x+30y <= 4000
* x+y <= 75
*
* With x,y being integers
*
*/
Problem problem = new Problem();
Linear linear = new Linear();
linear.add(143, "x");
linear.add(60, "y");
problem.setObjective(linear, OptType.MAX);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(120, "x");
linear.add(210, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 15000);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(110, "x");
linear.add(30, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 4000);
linear = new Linear();
linear.add(1, "x");
linear.add(1, "y");
problem.add(linear, "<=", 75);
problem.setVarType("x", Integer.class);
problem.setVarType("y", Integer.class);
Solver solver = factory.get(); // you should use this solver only once for one problem
Result result = solver.solve(problem);
System.out.println(result);
/**
* Extend the problem with x <= 16 and solve it again
*/
problem.setVarUpperBound("x", 16);
solver = factory.get();
result = solver.solve(problem);
System.out.println(result);
// Results in the following output:
// Objective: 6266.0 {y=52, x=22}
// Objective: 5828.0 {y=59, x=16}
I would start by measuring what's going on directly. For example, what fraction of the assignments are falling under your "any other case" catch-all and therefore doing nothing?
Also, while we can't really tell from the information given, it doesn't seem any of your moves can do a "swap", which may be a problem. If a schedule is tightly constrained, then once you find something feasible, it's likely that you won't be able to just move a class from room A to room B, as room B will be in use. You'd need to consider ways of moving a class from A to B along with moving a class from B to A.
You can also sometimes improve things by allowing constraints to be violated. Instead of forbidding crossover from ever violating a constraint, you can allow it, but penalize the fitness in proportion to the "badness" of the violation.
Finally, it's possible that your other operators are the problem as well. If your selection and replacement operators are too aggressive, you can converge very quickly to something that's only slightly better than where you started. Once you converge, it's very difficult for mutations alone to kick you back out into a productive search.
I think there is nothing wrong with GA for this problem, some people just hate Genetic Algorithms no matter what.
Here is what I would check:
First you mention that your GA stabilizes at a random "High" fitness value, but isn't this a good thing? Does "high" fitness correspond to good or bad in your case? It is possible you are favoring "High" fitness in one part of your code and "Low" fitness in another thus causing the seemingly random result.
I think you want to be a bit more careful about the logic behind your crossover operation. Basically there are many situations for all 3 cases where making any of those choices would not cause an increase in fitness at all of the crossed-over individual, but you are still using a "resource" (an assignment that could potentially be used for another class/student/etc.) I realize that a GA traditionally will make assignments via crossover that cause worse behavior, but you are already performing a bit of computation in the crossover phase anyway, why not choose one that actually will improve fitness or maybe don't cross at all?
Optional Comment to Consider : Although your iterative construction approach is quite interesting, this may cause you to have an overly complex Gene representation that could be causing problems with your crossover. Is it possible to model a single individual solution as an array (or 2D array) of bits or integers? Even if the array turns out to be very long, it may be worth it use a more simple crossover procedure. I recommend Googling "ga gene representation time tabling" you may find an approach that you like more and can more easily scale to many individuals (100 is a rather small population size for a GA, but I understand you are still testing, also how many generations?).
One final note, I am not sure what language you are working in but if it is Java and you don't NEED to code the GA by hand I would recommend taking a look at ECJ. Maybe even if you have to code by hand, it could help you develop your representation or breeding pipeline.
Newcomers to GA can make any of a number of standard mistakes:
In general, when doing crossover, make sure that the child has some chance of inheriting that which made the parent or parents winner(s) in the first place. In other words, choose a genome representation where the "gene" fragments of the genome have meaningful mappings to the problem statement. A common mistake is to encode everything as a bitvector and then, in crossover, to split the bitvector at random places, splitting up the good thing the bitvector represented and thereby destroying the thing that made the individual float to the top as a good candidate. A vector of (limited) integers is likely to be a better choice, where integers can be replaced by mutation but not by crossover. Not preserving something (doesn't have to be 100%, but it has to be some aspect) of what made parents winners means you are essentially doing random search, which will perform no better than linear search.
In general, use much less mutation than you might think. Mutation is there mainly to keep some diversity in the population. If your initial population doesn't contain anything with a fractional advantage, then your population is too small for the problem at hand and a high mutation rate will, in general, not help.
In this specific case, your crossover function is too complicated. Do not ever put constraints aimed at keeping all solutions valid into the crossover. Instead the crossover function should be free to generate invalid solutions and it is the job of the goal function to somewhat (not totally) penalize the invalid solutions. If your GA works, then the final answers will not contain any invalid assignments, provided 100% valid assignments are at all possible. Insisting on validity in the crossover prevents valid solutions from taking shortcuts through invalid solutions to other and better valid solutions.
I would recommend anyone who thinks they have written a poorly performing GA to conduct the following test: Run the GA a few times, and note the number of generations it took to reach an acceptable result. Then replace the winner selection step and goal function (whatever you use - tournament, ranking, etc) with a random choice, and run it again. If you still converge roughly at the same speed as with the real evaluator/goal function then you didn't actually have a functioning GA. Many people who say GAs don't work have made some mistake in their code which means the GA converges as slowly as random search which is enough to turn anyone off from the technique.
I am in the process of writing a genetic algorithm to solve Sudoku puzzles and was hoping for some input. The algorithm solves puzzles occasionally (about 1 out of 10 times on the same puzzle with max 1,000,000 iterations) and I am trying to get a little input about mutation rates, repopulation, and splicing. Any input is greatly appreciated as this is brand new to me and I feel like I am not doing things 100% correct.
A quick overview of the algorithm
Fitness Function
Counts the number of unique values of numbers 1 through 9 in each column, row, and 3*3 sub box. Each of these unique values in the subsets are summed and divided by 9 resulting in a floating value between 0 and 1. The sum of these values is divided by 27 providing a total fitness value ranging between 0 and 1. 1 indicates a solved puzzle.
Population Size:
100
Selection:
Roulette Method. Each node is randomly selected where nodes containing higher fitness values have a slightly better chance of selection
Reproduction:
Two randomly selected chromosomes/boards swap a randomly selected subset (row, column, or 3*3 subsets) The selection of subset(which row, column, or box) is random. The resulting boards are introduced into population.
Reproduction Rate: 12% of population per cycle
There are six reproductions per iteration resulting in 12 new chromosomes per cycle of the algorithm.
Mutation: mutation occurs at a rate of 2 percent of population after 10 iterations of no improvement of highest fitness.
Listed below are the three mutation methods which have varying weights of selection probability.
1: Swap randomly selected numbers. The method selects two random numbers and swaps them throughout the board. This method seems to have the greatest impact on growth early in the algorithms growth pattern. 25% chance of selection
2: Introduce random changes: Randomly select two cells and change their values. This method seems to help keep the algorithm from converging. %65 chance of selection
3: count the number of each value in the board. A solved board contains a count of 9 of each number between 1 and 9. This method takes any number that occurs less than 9 times and randomly swaps it with a number that occurs more than 9 times. This seems to have a positive impact on the algorithm but only used sparingly. %10 chance of selection
My main question is at what rate should I apply the mutation method. It seems that as I increase mutation I have faster initial results. However as the result approaches a correct result, I think the higher rate of change is introducing too many bad chromosomes and genes into the population. However, with the lower rate of change the algorithm seems to converge too early.
One last question is whether there is a better approach to mutation.
You can anneal the mutation rate over time to get the sort of convergence behavior you're describing. But I actually think there are probably bigger gains to be had by modifying other parts of your algorithm.
Roulette wheel selection applies a very high degree of selection pressure in general. It tends to cause a pretty rapid loss of diversity fairly early in the process. Binary tournament selection is usually a better place to start experimenting. It's a more gradual form of pressure, and just as importantly, it's much better controlled.
With a less aggressive selection mechanism, you can afford to produce more offspring, since you don't have to worry about producing so many near-copies of the best one or two individuals. Rather than 12% of the population producing offspring (possible less because of repetition of parents in the mating pool), I'd go with 100%. You don't necessarily need to literally make sure every parent participates, but just generate the same number of offspring as you have parents.
Some form of mild elitism will probably then be helpful so that you don't lose good parents. Maybe keep the best 2-5 individuals from the parent population if they're better than the worst 2-5 offspring.
With elitism, you can use a bit higher mutation rate. All three of your operators seem useful. (Note that #3 is actually a form of local search embedded in your genetic algorithm. That's often a huge win in terms of performance. You could in fact extend #3 into a much more sophisticated method that looped until it couldn't figure out how to make any further improvements.)
I don't see an obvious better/worse set of weights for your three mutation operators. I think at that point, you're firmly within the realm of experimental parameter tuning. Another idea is to inject a bit of knowledge into the process and, for example, say that early on in the process, you choose between them randomly. Later, as the algorithm is converging, favor the mutation operators that you think are more likely to help finish "almost-solved" boards.
I once made a fairly competent Sudoku solver, using GA. Blogged about the details (including different representations and mutation) here:
http://fakeguido.blogspot.com/2010/05/solving-sudoku-with-genetic-algorithms.html
We have studied the Variable Elimination recently and the teacher emphasizes that it is the Bayesian Network that makes varibale elimination more efficient.
I am bit confused on this,why is this the case?
Hope you guys can give me some idea,many thanks.
Robert
Bayesian Networks can take advantage of the order of variable elimination because of the conditional independence assumptions built in.
Specifically, imagine having the joint distribution P(a,b,c,d) and wanting to know the marginal P(a). If you knew nothing about the conditional independence, you could calculate this by summing out over b,c and d. If these have k-ary domains, you need to do O(k^3) operations.
On the other hand, assume that you have a bayes net where A is the root, B is a child of A, C is a child of B and D is a child of C. Then, you can rewrite the joint as P(a|b)P(b|c)P(c|d)P(d) and distribute your three summations as far to the right of the equation as possible. When you actually want to compute P(a), you can precompute the value of sum_d P(d) and store this function. Likewise, you can precompute the value of P(c|d)*sum_d P(d) and store this.
In this way, you end up doing work of O(k^w*+1), where W* is the largest number of children any node in your bayes net has. In this case, we do O(k^2) work, which is also the size of the largest conditional probability table we must keep in memory. Note this is better than our original O(k^3) result, and would be even better if we had more variables.
In short, the conditional independence of a BN allows you to marginalize out variables more efficiently. Another explanation of this can be found at http://www.cs.uiuc.edu/class/sp08/cs440/notes/varElimLec.pdf.
I think it's because a variable which one can eliminate is one which has one and only one variable which is dependent on it. In a Bayes net these would be easy to find because they are nodes with a single child.