I am trying to compare the forecast accuracy of a number of methods using MAPE across different commodity markets, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, cotton. Obviously the relative MAPE’s area impacted by the relative volatilities of each commodity: a high MAPE for wheat may simply reflect a volatile market, not necessarily a poor forecast.
I am wondering how to correct for this: some kind of vol-adjusted MAPE I suppose, but I cannot find any literature on this. Alternatively, I was thinking of comparing the MAPE of a certain forecast method with the MAPE of a naïve forecast…this should also correct for the vol difference somewhat, I suppose.
Any further suggestions/comments are greatly appreciated.
I'm not aware of any measures that directly incorporates volatility, in order to enable comparison across. I would also question the relevance of directly comparing accuracy measures across like that, as the accuracy would depend - as you also points out - on the volatility/signal-to-noise ratio of the time series.
I approach a problem like this by what you also suggest - create a naïve forecast, and have that as the lowest acceptable accuracy for that series, and also an initial measure of the forecastability of the series.
Note: i follow the definition of a naïve forecast as: one which is a very simple forecast model, could be naive1, naive2, moving average or combination of those - where no further work needs to be done on parameters.
Try to have a look at the work of Michael Gilliland on FVA for inspiration
Given a standard LDA model with few 1000 topics and few millions of documents, trained with Mallet / collapsed Gibbs sampler:
When inferring a new document: Why not just skip sampling and simply use the term-topic counts of the model to determine the topic assignments of the new document? I understand that applying the Gibbs sampling on the new document is taking into account the topic mixture of the new document which in turn influence how topics are composed (beta, term-freq. distributions). However as topics are kept fixed when inferring a new document, i don't see why this should be relevant.
An issue with sampling is the probabilistic nature - sometimes documents topic assignments inferred, greatly vary on repeated invocations. Therefore i would like to understand the theoretical and practical value of the sampling vs. just using a deterministic method.
Thanks Ben
Just using term topic counts of the last Gibbs sample is not a good idea. Such an approach doesn't take into account the topic structure: if a document has many words from one topic, it's likely to have even more words from that topic [1].
For example, say two words have equal probabilities in two topics. The topic assignment of the first word in a given document affects the topic probability of the other word: the other word is more likely to be in the same topic as the first one. The relation works the other way also. The complexity of this situation is why we use methods like Gibbs sampling to estimate values for this sort of problem.
As for your comment on topic assignments varying, that can't be helped, and could be taken as a good thing: if a words topic assignment varies, you can't rely on it. What you're seeing is that the posterior distribution over topics for that word has no clear winner, so you should take a particular assignment with a grain of salt :)
[1] assuming beta, the prior on document-topic distributions, encourages sparsity, as is usually chosen for topic models.
The real issue is computational complexity. If each of N tokens in a document can have K possible topics, there are K to the N possible configurations of topics. With two topics and a document the size of this answer, you have more possibilities than the number of atoms in the universe.
Sampling from this search space is, however, quite efficient, and usually gives consistent results if you average over three to five consecutive Gibbs sweeps. You get to do something computationally impossible, and what it costs you is some uncertainty.
As was noted, you can get a "deterministic" result by setting a fixed random seed, but that doesn't actually solve anything.
I am automating a process which asks questions (via SMS but shouldn't matter) to real people. The questions have yes/no answers, but the person might respond in a number of ways such as: sure, not at this time, yeah, never or in any other way that they might. I would like to attempt to parse this text and determine if it was a yes or no answer (of course it might not always be right).
I figured the ideas and concepts to do this might already exist as it seems like a common task for an AI, but don't know what it might be called so I can't find information on how I might implement it. So my questions is, have algorithms been developed to do this kind of parsing and if so where can I find more information on how to implement them?
This can be viewed as a binary (yes or no) classification task. You could write a rule-based model to classify or a statistics-based model.
A rule-based model would be like if answer in ["never", "not at this time", "nope"] then answer is "no". When spam filters first came out they contained a lot of rules like these.
A statistics-based model would probably be more suitable here, as writing your own rules gets tiresome and does not handle new cases as well.
For this you need to label a training dataset. After a little preprocessing (like lowercasing all the words, removing punctuation and maybe even a little stemming) you could get a dataset like
0 | never in a million years
0 | never
1 | yes sir
1 | yep
1 | yes yes yeah
0 | no way
Now you can run classification algorithms like Naive Bayes or Logistic Regression over this set (after you vectorize the words in either binary, which means is the word present or not, word count, which means the term frequency, or a tfidf float, which prevent bias to longer answers and common words) and learn which words more often belong to which class.
In the above example yes would be strongly correlated to a positive answer (1) and never would be strongly related to a negative answer (0). You could work with n-grams so a not no would be treated as a single token in favor of the positive class. This is called the bag-of-words approach.
To combat spelling errors you can add a spellchecker like Aspell to the pre-processing step. You could use a charvectorizer too, so a word like nno would be interpreted as nn and no and you catch errors like hellyes and you could trust your users to repeat spelling errors. If 5 users make the spelling error neve for the word never then the token neve will automatically start to count for the negative class (if labeled as such).
You could write these algorithms yourself (Naive Bayes is doable, Paul Graham has wrote a few accessible essays on how to classify spam with Bayes Theorem and nearly every ML library has a tutorial on how to do this) or make use of libraries or programs like Scikit-Learn (MultinomialNB, SGDclassifier, LinearSVC etc.) or Vowpal Wabbit (logistic regression, quantile loss etc.).
Im thinking on top of my head, if you get a response which you dont know if its yes / no, you can keep the answers in a DB like unknown_answers and 2 more tables as affirmative_answers / negative_answers, then in a little backend system, everytime you get a new unknown_answer you qualify them as yes or no, and there the system "learns" about it and with time, you will have a very big and good database of affirmative / negative answers.
I've trained a system on SVM,that is given a question,whether the webpage is a good one for answering this question.
The feature I selected are "Term frequency in webpage","Whether term matches with the webpage title", "number of images in the webpage", "length of the webpage","is it a wikipedia page?","the position of this webpage in the list returned by the search engine".
Currently,my system will maintain a precision around 0.4 and recall at 1.It has a large portion of false positive error(that many bad links were classified as good link by my classifier).
Since the accuracy could be improved a bit,I would like to ask for some help here on considering refine the features that I selected for training/testing,could remove some or adding more in there.
Thanks in advance.
Hmm...
How large is your training set? i.e., how many training documents are you using?
What is your test set composed of?
Since you're getting too many FPs, I would try training with more (and varied) "bad" webpages
Can you give more details about your different features, like "tf in webpage," etc.?
I'm working with a couple of AI algorithms at school and I find people use the words Fuzzy Logic to explain any situation that they can solve with a couple of cases. When I go back to the books I just read about how instead of a state going from On to Off it's a diagonal line and something can be in both states but in different "levels".
I've read the wikipedia entry and a couple of tutorials and even programmed stuff that "uses fuzzy logic" (an edge detector and a 1-wheel self-controlled robot) and still I find it very confusing going from Theory to Code... for you, in the less complicated definition, what is fuzzy logic?
Fuzzy logic is logic where state membership is, essentially, a float with range 0..1 instead of an int 0 or 1. The mileage you get out of it is that things like, for example, the changes you make in a control system are somewhat naturally more fine-tuned than what you'd get with naive binary logic.
An example might be logic that throttles back system activity based on active TCP connections. Say you define "a little bit too many" TCP connections on your machine as 1000 and "a lot too many" as 2000. At any given time, your system has a "too many TCP connections" state from 0 (<= 1000) to 1 (>= 2000), which you can use as a coefficient in applying whatever throttling mechanisms you have available. This is much more forgiving and responsive to system behavior than naive binary logic that only knows how to determine "too many", and throttle completely, or "not too many", and not throttle at all.
I'd like to add to the answers (that have been modded up) that, a good way to visualize fuzzy logic is follows:
Traditionally, with binary logic you would have a graph whose membership function is true or false whereas in a fuzzy logic system, the membership function is not.
1|
| /\
| / \
| / \
0|/ \
------------
a b c d
Assume for a second that the function is "likes peanuts"
a. kinda likes peanuts
b. really likes peanuts
c. kinda likes peanuts
d. doesn't like peanuts
The function itself doesn't have to be triangular and often isn't (it's just easier with ascii art).
A fuzzy system will likely have many of these, some even overlapping (even opposites) like so:
1| A B
| /\ /\ A = Likes Peanuts
| / \/ \ B = Doesn't Like Peanuts
| / /\ \
0|/ / \ \
------------
a b c d
so now c is "kind likes peanuts, kinda doesn't like peanuts" and d is "really doesn't like peanuts"
And you can program accordingly based on that info.
Hope this helps for the visual learners out there.
The best definition of fuzzy logic is given by its inventor Lotfi Zadeh:
“Fuzzy logic means of representing problems to computers in a way akin to the way human solve them and the essence of fuzzy logic is that everything is a matter of degree.”
The meaning of solving problems with computers akin to the way human solve can easily be explained with a simple example from a basketball game; if a player wants to guard another player firstly he should consider how tall he is and how his playing skills are. Simply if the player that he wants to guard is tall and plays very slow relative to him then he will use his instinct to determine to consider if he should guard that player as there is an uncertainty for him. In this example the important point is the properties are relative to the player and there is a degree for the height and playing skill for the rival player. Fuzzy logic provides a deterministic way for this uncertain situation.
There are some steps to process the fuzzy logic (Figure-1). These steps are; firstly fuzzification where crisp inputs get converted to fuzzy inputs secondly these inputs get processed with fuzzy rules to create fuzzy output and lastly defuzzification which results with degree of result as in fuzzy logic there can be more than one result with different degrees.
Figure 1 – Fuzzy Process Steps (David M. Bourg P.192)
To exemplify the fuzzy process steps, the previous basketball game situation could be used. As mentioned in the example the rival player is tall with 1.87 meters which is quite tall relative to our player and can dribble with 3 m/s which is slow relative to our player. Addition to these data some rules are needed to consider which are called fuzzy rules such as;
if player is short but not fast then guard,
if player is fast but not short then don’t guard
If player is tall then don’t guard
If player is average tall and average fast guard
Figure 2 – how tall
Figure 3- how fast
According to the rules and the input data an output will be created by fuzzy system such as; the degree for guard is 0.7, degree for sometimes guard is 0.4 and never guard is 0.2.
Figure 4-output fuzzy sets
On the last step, defuzzication, is using for creating a crisp output which is a number which may determine the energy that we should use to guard the player during game. The centre of mass is a common method to create the output. On this phase the weights to calculate the mean point is totally depends on the implementation. On this application it is considered to give high weight to guard or not guard but low weight given to sometimes guard. (David M. Bourg, 2004)
Figure 5- fuzzy output (David M. Bourg P.204)
Output = [0.7 * (-10) + 0.4 * 1 + 0.2 * 10] / (0.7 + 0.4 + 0.2) ≈ -3.5
As a result fuzzy logic is using under uncertainty to make a decision and to find out the degree of decision. The problem of fuzzy logic is as the number of inputs increase the number of rules increase exponential.
For more information and its possible application in a game I wrote a little article check this out
To build off of chaos' answer, a formal logic is nothing but an inductively defined set that maps sentences to a valuation. At least, that's how a model theorist thinks of logic. In the case of a sentential boolean logic:
(basis clause) For all A, v(A) in {0,1}
(iterative) For the following connectives,
v(!A) = 1 - v(A)
v(A & B) = min{v(A), v(B)}
v(A | B) = max{v(A), v(B)}
(closure) All sentences in a boolean sentential logic are evaluated per above.
A fuzzy logic changes would be inductively defined:
(basis clause) For all A, v(A) between [0,1]
(iterative) For the following connectives,
v(!A) = 1 - v(A)
v(A & B) = min{v(A), v(B)}
v(A | B) = max{v(A), v(B)}
(closure) All sentences in a fuzzy sentential logic are evaluated per above.
Notice the only difference in the underlying logic is the permission to evaluate a sentence as having the "truth value" of 0.5. An important question for a fuzzy logic model is the threshold that counts for truth satisfaction. This is to ask: for a valuation v(A), for what value D it is the case the v(A) > D means that A is satisfied.
If you really want to found out more about non-classical logics like fuzzy logic, I would recommend either An Introduction to Non-Classical Logic: From If to Is or Possibilities and Paradox
Putting my coder hat back on, I would be careful with the use of fuzzy logic in real world programming, because of the tendency for a fuzzy logic to be undecidable. Maybe it's too much complexity for little gain. For instance a supervaluational logic may do just fine to help a program model vagueness. Or maybe probability would be good enough. In short, I need to be convinced that the domain model dovetails with a fuzzy logic.
Maybe an example clears up what the benefits can be:
Let's say you want to make a thermostat and you want it to be 24 degrees.
This is how you'd implement it using boolean logic:
Rule1: heat up at full power when
it's colder than 21 degrees.
Rule2:
cool down at full power when it's
warmer than 27 degrees.
Such a system will only once and a while be 24 degrees, and it will be very inefficient.
Now, using fuzzy logic, it would be like something like this:
Rule1: For each degree that it's colder than 24 degrees, turn up the heater one notch (0 at 24).
Rule2: For each degree that it's warmer than 24 degress, turn up the cooler one notch (0 at 24).
This system will always be somewhere around 24 degrees, and it only once and will only once and a while make a tiny adjustment. It will also be more energy-efficient.
Well, you could read the works of Bart Kosko, one of the 'founding fathers'. 'Fuzzy Thinking: The New Science of Fuzzy Logic' from 1994 is readable (and available quite cheaply secondhand via Amazon). Apparently, he has a newer book 'Noise' from 2006 which is also quite approachable.
Basically though (in my paraphrase - not having read the first of those books for several years now), fuzzy logic is about how to deal with the world where something is perhaps 10% cool, 50% warm, and 10% hot, where different decisions may be made on the degree to which the different states are true (and no, it wasn't entirely an accident that those percentages don't add up to 100% - though I'd accept correction if needed).
A very good explanation, with a help of Fuzzy Logic Washing Machines.
I know what you mean about it being difficult to go from concept to code. I'm writing a scoring system that looks at the values of sysinfo and /proc on Linux systems and comes up with a number between 0 and 10, 10 being the absolute worst. A simple example:
You have 3 load averages (1, 5, 15 minute) with (at least) three possible states, good, getting bad, bad. Expanding that, you could have six possible states per average, adding 'about to' to the three that I just noted. Yet, the result of all 18 possibilities can only deduct 1 from the score. Repeat that with swap consumed, actual VM allocated (committed) memory and other stuff .. and you have one big bowl of conditional spaghetti :)
Its as much a definition as it is an art, how you implement the decision making process is always more interesting than the paradigm itself .. whereas in a boolean world, its rather cut and dry.
It would be very easy for me to say if load1 < 2 deduct 1, but not very accurate at all.
If you can teach a program to do what you would do when evaluating some set of circumstances and keep the code readable, you have implemented a good example of fuzzy logic.
Fuzzy Logic is a problem-solving methodology that lends itself to implementation in systems ranging from simple, small, embedded micro-controllers to large, networked, multi-channel PC or workstation-based data acquisition and control systems. It can be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination of both. Fuzzy Logic provides a simple way to arrive at a definite conclusion based upon vague, ambiguous, imprecise, noisy, or missing input information. Fuzzy Logic approach to control problems mimics how a person would make decisions, only much faster.
Fuzzy logic has proved to be particularly useful in expert system and other artificial intelligence applications. It is also used in some spell checkers to suggest a list of probable words to replace a misspelled one.
To learn more, just check out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic.
The following is sort of an empirical answer.
A simple (possibly simplistic answer) is that "fuzzy logic" is any logic that returns values other than straight true / false, or 1 / 0. There are a lot of variations on this and they tend to be highly domain specific.
For example, in my previous life I did search engines that used "content similarity searching" as opposed to then common "boolean search". Our similarity system used the Cosine Coefficient of weighted-attribute vectors representing the query and the documents and produced values in the range 0..1. Users would supply "relevance feedback" which was used to shift the query vector in the direction of desirable documents. This is somewhat related to the training done in certain AI systems where the logic gets "rewarded" or "punished" for results of trial runs.
Right now Netflix is running a competition to find a better suggestion algorithm for their company. See http://www.netflixprize.com/. Effectively all of the algorithms could be characterized as "fuzzy logic"
Fuzzy logic is calculating algorithm based on human like way of thinking. It is particularly useful when there is a large number of input variables. One online fuzzy logic calculator for two variables input is given:
http://www.cirvirlab.com/simulation/fuzzy_logic_calculator.php