A method for forecasting group business in the hotel industry - forecasting

I'm trying to derive a way to forecast group business. The difference between group business and individual business is that with individual business, each room counts as one, and we forecast the probability of that room being sold. But with group business, it could be 100 rooms in a block. If there is a 70% probability of that group coming through, then the expected value would be 70 rooms (self taught, so please excuse errors or misuse of terms).
Except that's not how groups work - they're all or nothing so it's either zero or 100, and I can't enter a forecast by day for management that would include portions of the blocks. I'm not sure if the best way is to assess each group individually to make a prediction of whether they will sign, and then decide on a threshold to use in a forecast (i.e., groups over 70% likely will have 100% of their rooms included). Although I haven't had any luck finding an answer in hotel literature, I thought that there must be similar situations in other industries that have tackled this question?

Related

combining the impact of absolute value and YoY change

I am currently working on a problem where we are ranking a customer demographic by absolute value of sales or by the YoY (year-over-year) change in sales.
As is obvious, looking at both these metrics at the same time lets us know whether the growth we are witnessing is actually substantial or not.
For example, let's say a state had a YoY growth of 200% by the end of 2021, but if the absolute value of sales only changed from $100 to $300, it is not actual growth with regards to the hundred thousand dollar values we usually see for other states.
I am looking for ways to combine the effect of both these metrics (absolute value and YoY change) and create a composite metric which can be used to rank my customer demographic.
A common way to combine two metrics is to normalise them to the same range, e.g. 0..1 and then take a weighted average. However there's always a question as to what the weights should be, and, more importantly, what such a metric means. From my experience, I'd advise against trying to combine metrics this way.

Infinite scrolling for personalized recommendations

I've been recently researching solutions that would allow me to display a personalized ranking of products in an online e-commerce store.
A natural solution for this problem would be to use a managed ML service such as
AWS Personalize.
Based on my understanding it can be implemented in terms of 2 service calls:
Recommendations - return up to ~500 products based on user's profile
Ranking - based on product ids (up to ~500) reorder the list according user's to profile
I was wondering if there exists and implementation / indexing strategy that would allow to display the entire product catalog (let's assume 10k products)?
I can imagine an implementation that would:
Return 50 products per page
Call recommendations to grab first 500 products
Alternatively, pick top 500 products platform-wise and rerank them according to the user.
For the remaining results, i.e. pages 11 to N a database query would be executed, excluding those 500 products by id. The recommended ordering wouldn't be as relevant anymore as te top recommendations have been listed and the user is less likely to encounter relevant results at the 11th page. As a downside such a query would need a relatively large array to be included as a part of the query.
Is there a better solution for this? I've seen many eccomerce platforms offering a "Recommended" order option for their product listing that allows infinite scrolling. Would that mean that such a store is typically using predefined ranks, that is an arbitrary rank assigned to each product by the content manager that is exactly the same for any user on the platform?
I don't think I've ever seen an ecommerce site that shows me 10K products without any differentiation. Most ecommerce sites use a process called "merchandising" to decide which product to show, to which customer, in which position/treatment, at which time, and in which context.
Personalized recommendations may be part of that process, but they are generally only a part. For instance, if you're browsing "Books about architecture", the fact the recommendation engine thinks you're really interested in CDs by Duran Duran is not super useful. And even within "books about architecture", there may be other attributes that are more likely to drive your buying behaviour.
Most ecommerce sites use a range of attributes to decide product ranking in a product listing page, for example "relevance", "price", "is the product on special offer?", "is the product in stock?", "do we make a big margin on this product?", "is this a best seller?", "is the supplier reliable?". Personalized recommendations are sprinkled into these factors, but the weightings are very much specific to the vendor.
Most recommendation engines will provide a "relevance score" or similar indicator. In my experience, this has a long tail distribution - a handful of products will score highly, and the rest will score very low relevancy scores. The ecommerce business I have worked with have a cut off point - a score of less than x means we'll ignore the recommendation, in favour of other criteria.
Again, in my experience, personalized recommendations are useful for squeezing the last few percentage points of conversion, but nowhere near as valuable as robust search, intuitive categorization, and rich meta data.
I'd suggest that if your customer has scrolled through 500 recommended products, it's unlikely the next 9500 need to be in "recommended" order - your recommendation mechanism is probably statistically not significant.

in stock trading how to masure quantity of stock

I am working on stock market analysis and prediction using machine learning methods, especially with reinforcement learning. I am trying to predict short, long and flat. (buy, hold, sell) . (any suggestion or material is appreciated),
currently, I am giving historical data into my agent and agent predict buy, sell or hold signal.
my question is how to measure stock quantity. e.g. if my model gives a buy signal, how to measure how much stock I should buy.
I think that should be a variable in your model. It may depend on how strong the buy signal is and it will probably depend on how many assets you have available to buy stocks. An individual will most likely not have the assets on hand to buy stocks that Berkshire Hathaway would. It is interesting to note that if large purchases are being made by Berkshire Hathaway the price actually changes when people find out or even if they suspect. That is a dynamic that you could ignore for smaller purchases.

Invoicing database design

I created an application few days ago that deals with invoicing. I would like to know how to best integrate a discount to my invoices. Should I put it as a negative item (in the invoice_items table) or should I create a "discount" column in the invoice table ?
I would have it as a negative-valued item. The reasons are:
With invoicing, it's very important that the calculated value remains contant forever; even if your calculation formula later changes, you can correctly reproduce any given invoice. This is even true if the value was incorrectly calculated at the time - it was what it was.
Having a value amount means that manual adjustments for exceptional circumstances is easily handled - eg, your marketing manager/accountant may decide to give a one-off discount of $100 because of a late delivery. This is trivial with negative values - just add another row, but difficult/hassle with discount rates
You can have multiple discount amounts per invoice
It's totally flexible - it has its own space to exist and be whatever it needs to be. In fact, I would make the discount another "product" (maybe even multiple products - one for each distinct discount reason, eg xmas, coupon, referral, etc.
With its own item, you can add a reason description just like any other "product" - eg "10% discount for paying cash" or whatever
You don't need any special code or database columns! Just total items up as before and print them on the invoice. "There is no spoon (discount)": It's just another line item - what could be more simple than no code/db changes required?
Not all items should be discounted - eg refunds, returns, subscriptions (if applicable). It becomes too complicated and it's unnecessary to represent the business logic of discounts in the database. Leave the calculation etc in the app code, store the result in the db
Having its own item means the calculation can be arbitrarily complex. This means no db maintenance as the complexity grows. It's a whole lot easier to maintain/alter code than it is to maintain/alter a database
Finally, I successfully built an invoicing system, and I took the "item" approach and it worked really well
What consequences would either of those choices have for you down the road? For example, would you like to have multiple discounts, or very specified discounts later on? If there will only be one discount per invoice, then I wouldn't make it any more complicated than need be. In my opinion it's easier and clearer to have it in the invoice table - having it as a negative item will make the processing of items more difficult, I think.
I fully agree with making it as simple as possible, but one thing to consider is if any item should be exempted from the discount? In that case you need to add a bool field in the details to remember which line should have discount.

Inventory database design [closed]

Closed. This question needs to be more focused. It is not currently accepting answers.
Want to improve this question? Update the question so it focuses on one problem only by editing this post.
Closed 4 years ago.
Improve this question
This is a question not really about "programming" (is not specific to any language or database), but more of design and architecture. It's also a question of the type "What the best way to do X". I hope does no cause to much "religious" controversy.
In the past I have developed systems that in one way or another, keep some form of inventory of items (not relevant what items). Some using languages/DB's that do not support transactions. In those cases I opted not to save item quantity on hand in a field in the item record. Instead the quantity on hand is calculated totaling inventory received - total of inventory sold. This has resulted in almost no discrepancies in inventory because of software. The tables are properly indexed and the performance is good. There is a archiving process in case the amount of record start to affect performance.
Now, few years ago I started working in this company, and I inherited a system that tracks inventory. But the quantity is saved in a field. When an entry is registered, the quantity received is added to the quantity field for the item. When an item is sold, the quantity is subtracted. This has resulted in discrepancies. In my opinion this is not the right approach, but the previous programmers here swear by it.
I would like to know if there is a consensus on what's the right way is to design such system. Also what resources are available, printed or online, to seek guidance on this.
Thanks
I have seen both approaches at my current company and would definitely lean towards the first (calculating totals based on stock transactions).
If you are only storing a total quantity in a field somewhere, you have no idea how you arrived at that number. There is no transactional history and you can end up with problems.
The last system I wrote tracks stock by storing each transaction as a record with a positive or negative quantity. I have found it works very well.
The Data Model Resource Book, Vol. 1: A Library of Universal Data Models for All Enterprises
The Data Model Resource Book, Vol. 2: A Library of Data Models for Specific Industries
The Data Model Resource Book: Universal Patterns for Data Modeling
I have Vol 1 and Vol 2 and these have been pretty helpful in the past.
It depends, inventory systems are about far more than just counting items. For example, for accounting purposes, you might need to know accounting value of inventory based on FIFO (First-in-First-out) model. That can't be calculated by simple "totaling inventory received - total of inventory sold" formula. But their model might calculate this easily, because they modify accounting value as they go. I don't want to go into details because this is not programming issue but if they swear by it, maybe you didn't understand fully all their requirements they have to accommodate.
both are valid, depending on the circumstances. The former is best when the following conditions hold:
the number of items to sum is relatively small
there are few or no exceptional cases to consider (returns, adjustments, et al)
the inventory item quantity is not needed very often
on the other hand, if you have a large number of items, several exceptional cases, and frequent access, it will be more efficient to maintain the item quantity
also note that if your system has discrepancies then it has bugs which should be tracked down and eliminated
i have done systems both ways, and both ways can work just fine - as long as you don't ignore the bugs!
It's important to consider the existing system and the cost and risk of changing it. I work with a database that stores inventory kind of like yours does, but it includes audit cycles and stores adjustments just like receipts. It seems to work well, but everyone involved is well trained, and the warehouse staff aren't exactly quick to learn new procedures.
In your case, if you're looking for a little more tracking without changing the whole db structure then I'd suggest adding a tracking table (kind of like from your 'transaction' solution) and then log changes to the inventory level. It shouldn't be too hard to update most changes to the inventory level so that they also leave a transaction record. You could also add a periodic task to backup the inventory level to the transaction table every couple hours or so so that even if you miss a transaction you can discover when the change happened or roll back to a previous state.
If you want to see how a large application does it take a look at SugarCRM, they have and inventory management module though I'm not sure how it stores the data.
I think this is actually a general best-practices question about doing a (relatively) expensive count every time you need a total vs. doing that count every time something changes, then storing the count in a field and reading that field whenever you need a total.
If I couldn't use transactions, I would go with the live count every time I needed a total. If transactions are available, it would be safe to perform the inventory update operations and the saving of the re-counted total within the same transaction, which would ensure the accuracy of the count (although I'm not sure this would work with multiple users hitting the database).
But if performance is not really a huge problem (and modern databases are good enough at counting rows that I would rarely even worry about this) I'd just stick with the live count each time.
I would opt for the first way, where
the quantity on hand is calculated
totaling inventory received - total of
inventory sold
The Right Way, IMO.
EDIT: I would also want to factor in any stock losses/damages into the system, but I'm sure you have that covered.
I've worked on systems that solve this problem before. I think the ideal solution is a precomputed column, which gets you the best of both worlds. Your total would be a field somewhere, thus no expensive lookups, but it can't get out of sync with the rest of your data (the database maintains the integrity). I don't remember which RDMSs support precomputed columns, but if you don't have transactions, that might not be available either.
You could potentially fake precomputed columns (very effectively... I see no downside) using triggers. You'd probably need transactions though. IMHO, keeping data integrity when you're doing this sort of controlled denormalization is the only legitimate use for a trigger.
Django-inventory geared more to fixed assets, but might give you some ideas.
IE: ItemTemplate (class) -> ItemsOnHand (instance)
ItemsOnHand can be linked to more ItemTemplates; Example Printer & the ink cartridges is requires. This also allows to set Reorder points for each ItemOnHand.
Each ItemsOnHand is linked to InventoryTransactions, this allows for easy auditing.
To avoid calculating actual on hand items from thousand of invetory transactions, checkpoints are used which are just a balance + a date. To calculate items on hand query to find the most recent checkpoint and start adding or substracting items to find the current balance of items. Define new checkpoints periodically.
I can see some benefit to having the two columns, but I'm not following the part about discrepancies - you seem to be implying that having the two columns (in and out) is less prone to discrepancy than a single column (current). Why is that?
Is not having one or two columns, what I meant with "totaling inventory received - total of inventory sold" is something like this:
Select sum(quantity) as inventory_received from Inventory_entry
Select sum(quantity) as inventory_sold from Sales_items
then
Qunatity_on_hand = inventory_received - inventory_sold
Please keep in mind that I oversimplified this and my initial explanation. I know there is much more to inventory that just keeping track of quantities, but in this case that's were the problem lies and what we want to fix. At this point the reason to change it is preciselly the cost of supporting the problems caused by the current design.
Also I wanted to mention that although this is not a "coding" question is related to algoritms and design which IMHO are very important topics.
Thanks everybody for your answers so far.
Nelson Marmol
We solve different problems, but our approach to some of them might be interesting to you.
We allow the system to make a "best guess", and give the users regular feedback about any of those guesses that look wrong.
To apply this to inventory, you could have 3 fields:
inventory_received
inventory_sold
estimated_on_hand
Then, you could run a process (daily?) along the lines of:
SELECT *
FROM Inventory
WHERE estimated_on_hand != inventory_received - inventory_sold
Of course, this relies on users looking at this alert, and doing something about it.
Also, you could have a function to reset inventory some how, either by updating inventory_sold/received, or perhaps adding another field "inventory_adjustment", which could be positive or negative.
... just some thoughts. Hope it's helpful.

Resources